An opinion on the FORM or upside potential of each horse. ?


Horses  that have the best chance to do better than the assigned PPN.
These horses are referred to as TOP-FORM = (T-F*)


I assign an asterisk (*) to horses that I find to be in TOP-FORM or have a higher upside potential, then the norm.  As mentioned in the "What is a Projected Power Number" section, our norm is to hit the number 1/3 of the time and fall below the number 1/2 of the time, this leaves over about 15% for horses running way better of way worse.   

These are the horses that I would most likely consider wagering on myself.
there are 4 types of horses that get the asterisk.

1) When I review the past performance of a horse, uniquely using my own PACE and FINAL numbers I have learned to identify horses that can improve in a big way, often referred to as a "ready horse" or a "developing horse"or a "recovering horse".  Since I have standardized the assignment of the PPN so as not to reflect my personal feeling, but to be consistent and reliable,  when a horse appears to have the potential to exceed the parameters of 1/3 plus and 1/2 minus, it gets the asterisk indicating (T-F*).  This is the most common type of horse to receive an asterisk indicating (T-F*).

2) Erratic horses that do not conform to form cycles that I can clearly understand. Generally these are horse that look in poor condition, however they have one positive feature; to occasionally run very fast races compared to their CEF (current expected form).  In order for these horses to get the asterisk, they must be lowly rated in the Graded Ranking.  I am alerting you to the FACT that these horse can surprise at any time, so given the right price they can possess great value. These are horses that can run a winning race 1 or 2 % of the time, but they do not currently signal that ability, they just have it.

3) First Time Starters that posses the ability to win first out.  I look at a variety of statistic for breeding, trainer and workouts to suggest your special attention to these horses.  We have identified many wonderful long shots including Impressive Grade at a mutual of $101.40.  I try not to consider odds, I am strictly looking for performance.

4) Shippers that are arriving for their first race at our tracks.  All foreign ratings are to be considered approximate, when I feel a European or South American or Aussie or other is special, I signal you with an asterisk indicating my belief that the horse has excellent form and would otherwise fit into our category as a (T-F*).