Jerry J's Power Page

July 28, 2010

…STILL A GREAT DEAL…  My Del Mar Special is offered every year, just for Del Mar.  The approximate cost of each  Power Page at only $2.65 if you act now!    When you purchase the special, the Del mar Power Pages are  AUTOMATICALLY e-mailed to you the night-before, usually before 8PM.  

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  154 out of 295 times — from June 25th through July 18th.   every  race with least 1 rated starter was counted at both Belmont and Hollywood Park during this period. 

This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.  Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Naturally, at the beginning of the meeting, with the most recent races occurring at other tracks, we might expect the top-rated horses to be slightly less frequent.  We can learn together, so far at Del Mar the TR is 18 (1st or 2nds) out of 55 races, through Saturday 7/24/10 — including all the turf to dirt races at Saratoga.  I will continue to follow these and include Saratoga to the mix…STAR horses are PLUS EQUITY!

Today’s Free Play … Saratoga…Race #9 …Our Top rated horse is Royal Fortune and trained by the excellent Dick dutrow Jr. at 4/1 this seems pretty fair value for such a fast horse, must overcome a slightly difficult post, but it’s not a terrible post!   Thsi should make an excelletn win/place wager and be the finishing point for some late DD’s or Pick 3.  Today’s play on the Race Day Show is the 8th at Saratoga.  See what happens when we get good weather.

July 25, 2010

 My Del Mar Special is offered every year, just for Del Mar.  The approximate cost of each  Power Page at only $2.60 per set now that we are a few days into the meeting, which means it’s …STILL A GREAT DEAL…   When you purchase the special, it is AUTOMATICALLY e-mailed to you the night-before, usually before 8PM.  

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  154 out of 295 times — from June 25th through July 18th.   every  race with least 1 rated starter was counted at both Belmont and Hollywood Park during this period. 

This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.  Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Naturally, at the beginning of the meeting, with the most recent races occurring at other tracks, we might expect the top-rated horses to be slightly less frequent.  We can learn together, so far at Del Mar the TR is 18 (1st or 2nds) out of 55 races, through Saturday 7/24/10 — including all the turf to dirt races at Saratoga.  I will continue to follow these and include Saratoga to the mix…STAR horses are PLUS EQUITY!

Yesterday’s Free Play…Saratoga– Race #8…Patieance Drive got the right track, but wasn’t the right horse although rich in value, but poor in performance.

Today’s Free Play … To be posted on Sunday AM/

July 24, 2010

 My Del Mar Special is offered because I don’t publish the Power Page for Fairplex and since Del Mar ends a couple of days into September,this offer makes a lot of sense.    For the past 12 years I have been offerring this special at the same price and I am keeping it going because it appeals to so many of you.  If you haven’t tried it, but expect to follow the meeting from beginning to end, it’s great to have , since there are approximately 40 days of racing, that makes the cost of a Power Page at only $2.50 per set or less…Now that’s a deal…I keep the special open for the first week, so the value starts to diminish if you delay for too long…   When you purchase the special, it is e-mailed to you the night-before, usually before 8PM.  

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  154 out of 295 times — from June 25th through July 18th.   every  race with least 1 rated starter was counted at both Belmont and Hollywood Park during this period. 

This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.  Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Naturally, at the beginning of the meeting, with the most recent races occurring at other tracks, we might expect the top-rated horses to be slightly less frequent.  We can learn together, so far at Del Mar the TR is 12 (1st or 2nds) out of 35 races.  I will continue to follow these and include Saratoga to the mix…STAR horses are PLUS EQUITY!

Yesterday’s Free Play…Del Mar — Race #5…Star Nicholas was a so-so fourth,

Today’s Free Play …Saratoga…Race #8…If you understand the Power Pages you will know to add points to horses with an “m” or “M” if the track is ACTUALLY wet and the handicapping has been for a FAST (or dry )surface.  That might be the condition today.  Another important aspect of the Powre Page is that I peg layoff horses a touch to the low (slower) side of their form range.   So it’s fair to say that layoff horses have some hidden potential but perform less frequently.  If the track remains on the wet side of Fast, it might be a good idea to take Patience Drive at a M/L of 8/1!  Two reasons, one is we can add a full 1 point to PD’s PPN of 71.5 which would improve the rating to within 1 point of the TR.   You might also improve or knock the TR a small amount as well, making  Zong Zing rating somewhere in a range from 73.0 to 74.0, we can do this simply because no one really knows the effect of a wet track on this filly; she might love it or she might hate wet going at Saratoga.  So at 8/1 on a more know quantity, with some reasonable indication of a preference for a wet surface, we might have something pretty decent here.   I’s make the win place on Patience Drive and demand a price of at least 6/1 in the WET going and 10/1 if it’s FAST going…See how I did that!

July 21, 2010

Del Mar starts today and Saratoga starts on Friday.   My Del Mar Special is offerred because I don’t make the Power Page for Fairplex and since Del Mar ends a couple of days into September, it makes sense to make this offer.    I have been doing the same special, for the same price, for the past 12 years and I am keeping it going because it appeals to so many of you.  If you haven’t tried it, but expect to follow the meeting from beginning to end, it’s great to have , since there are approximately 40 days of racing, that makes the cost of a Power Page at only $2.50 per set or less…Now that’s a deal…I keep the special open for the first week, so the value starts to diminish if you delay for too long…   When you purchase the special, it is e-mailed to you the night-before, usually before 8PM.  

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  154 out of 295 times — since June 25th.  I count every single race that has at least 1 rated starter at both Belmont and Hollywood Park. 

This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.  Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Today’s Free Play– in 8th at Del Mar –  The favorite is Twirling Candy, my Star horse, but TC has some natural handicapping problems as the favorite.  In fact all horses have natural handicapping problems as the favorite and we shouldn’t be betting them to win!  TC is also a favorite being asked to do many new tricks.  That’s another fundamental handicapping law, never bet a favorite being asked to do somehting that he/she hasn’t done before.  It’s a simple concept but it makes great sense.  Over the weekend I dissed Free Flying Soul because of her poor record at 7 furlongs and she couldn’t hack it.  It was a good example of not seeing all the beautiful stuff in her form and finding the flaw in a favorite.  Today TC has 3 clear flaws for a favorite, 1st – going 2 turns for the first time, 2nd — trying grass for the first time and 3rd — very lightly raced for this late in the 3 year old season.  By now you would expect to have seen at least 5 or 6 races under his belt.  So while we don’t know exactaly what that is all about, we do know this, that horses who have raced more produce better equity for us than horses who are by definition, lightly raced!  So while better horses are often more carefully handled and race a little less frequently, the same thing can be said for lots of bad favorites.   Here is my play, I am boxing in exactas and trifectas Fand and An Ace, Macias and Twirling Candy and then I am keying Face And An Ace to win and place if I can get a nice 5/1…

July 16, 2010

Seminar Info:

Visit with me at the National Orange Show in their Racing simulcast center — this Saturday 7/17/2010 at 11AM — I will doing a seminar on how to Adjust the PPN’s and on wagering.

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  124 out of 247 times — since June 25th.  I count every single race that has at least 1 rated starter at both Belmont and Hollywood Park. 

 This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always being the favorite.  Remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can thing of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together…

Friday’s Free Play  at Hollywood — Race #7…Victory Dancer seems too strong for these and can make good use of the outside post position…Build your key here and single in the late DD to my Race Day Play…

Notice: Since we are out of the office this weekend…All sets for this weekend have been posted at this time, you can get Saturday and Sunday’s Power Pages and Key Horse SS right now…I will be back in the office on Tuesday, if you need any assistance…